China’s financial regulators                    中国金融高管大洗盘
                                                译者：mandy萌
All change                                      大洗盘

The main supervisory agencies get a new set     主要监管机构迎来新的领导班子
of bosses

THE grey men at the top of China’s main         中国主要金融监管机构的高层很少变
financial-regulatory agencies do not change     动。所以，这次对银行，证券和保险
often. So the appointment of new bosses to      机构新领导的任命，激起一场波动。
the agencies supervising the banking,
securities and insurance industries has
created a splash.

The most important job, that atop the China      中国银行业监督管理委员会（银监会
Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), goes to    ）主席这个重要职务，由尚福林担任
Shang Fulin (pictured), a careful bureaucrat     。尚之前曾担任中国证监会主席。他
who most recently served as the chief            的改革措施广受欢迎，包括允许国有
securities regulator. His widely applauded       企业的非流动资产进入交易，以及引
reforms allowed illiquid shares of               进期货指数和保证金交易等。不过西
state-owned enterprises to be traded, as well    班牙毕尔巴鄂比斯银行的艾丽西亚认
as the introduction of index futures and         为，尚针对债券市场的改革缓慢，担
margin trading. But Alicia Garcia-Herrero of     心这会降低利率自由化的可能性，固
BBVA, a Spanish bank, argues that he moved       定资产账户的进一步开放也会放缓。
too slowly on bond-market reforms and fears
that “this reduces the likelihood of
interest-rate liberalisation and further
opening up of the capital account any time
soon.”
                                                 郭树清接替尚福林担任中国证监会主
Mr Shang’s former job running the China          席一职。之前郭曾是中国建设银行行
Securities Regulatory Commission goes to Guo     长。郭曾在牛津留学，英文流利，直
Shuqing, who until recently was chairman of      言不讳，并有市场头脑。去年接受路
China Construction Bank, a giant                 透社采访时，他曾说：如果不冒险，
state-controlled bank. A fluent English          怎么能赚到钱？
speaker who spent time at Oxford, he is
outspoken and seems market-minded: “If you
don’t take any risk how can you make any
money?” he asked in an interview with Reuters
last year.

Xiang Junbo, the former boss of the
Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), another
government-run banking goliath, is the new
insurance regulator. He made his mark with       中国农业银行前行长项俊波成为新一
the dual listing of ABC shares last year in      任保监会主席。去年，农行股份在沪
Hong Kong and Shanghai, which at $22 billion     市和香港股市两地上市，市值220亿
was then the biggest public placement ever.      美元，成为了最大的公共股份。

The trio have a tough task ahead. They must      三个人眼前的任务都很艰巨。他们一
overcome meddling from above as well as          方面要应对上层的干预，又要克服下
crises brewing below. Zhao Xinge of the China    面的危机。中欧国际商学院的赵新歌
Europe International Business School observes    说：银监会并没有完全掌握对银行业
that “CBRC clearly does not have total           的监管。他指出，国家领导的新政策
control in how the banks should be regulated.    ，让银行对中小企业的不良贷款更加
” He points to fresh demands from the country    忽视，所以，破产的中小企业“太多
’s leaders that banks be “more tolerant” of      了”。
bad loans made to small and medium
enterprises, which, he quips, are “too many
to fail”.

That hints at another sort of trouble for Mr     这意味着商和他的团队还面临新的麻
Shang and his colleagues.  Ostensibly, China’    烦。表面上，中国的银行系统运行良
s banks are in good health. Several              好。几个国有银行占据了四分之三的
publicly-listed state-controlled banks           利润。中国银行的季度利润去年一年
unveiled impressive third-quarter profits:       上升了9%。中国农业银行上升了40%
Bank of China’ s quarterly profits rose by 9%    。中国国际信托公司上升了41%。
from a year ago, ABC saw a rise of 40% and
China CITIC posted a 41% increase.

The snag is that these profits may be built      而缺陷是，这些高额利润的背后也许
on a mountain of bad debt. Few analysts          是一群呆账坏账。大部分金融分析学
believe the government’s rosy figures on         家都不相信这些依靠不良贷款取得的
non-performing loans, given the lending binge    巨大数字，因为激进的财政政策出台
that the big banks went on as part of China’s    后，各大银行都大规模发放贷款作为
official stimulus policy (see chart). One        回应。有人担心财政气泡会破裂。另
concern is that the property bubble will         外非正式贷款部门也可能破产，赤字
burst.  Another is the meltdown of the           高达4万亿元（ 6290亿美元）
informal lending sector, which Credit Suisse
estimates may be worth 4 trillion yuan ($629
billion).

The main worry, however, is local-government     不过最大的焦虑还是地方政府的债务
debt. This week the CBRC hinted for the first    问题。本周，银监会表示它们将首次
time that it may allow the special investment    允许特殊投资方接管延迟还贷造成的
vehicles holding most of this debt to delay      大部分债务。这会暂时缓解压力，不
loan payments. That would help ease an           止让银行业崩溃。不过同时银行账户
immediate crunch—but it would also further       会进一步糜烂，对资产负债表的合理
muddy the banks’ accounts and delay a proper     清算也将滞后。除非商和他的团队反
clean-up of balance-sheets. Unless Mr Shang      应足够敏捷，否则投资商将面临复杂
and his colleagues prove exceptionally deft,     的情况。
investors will be in for a rocky ride.